Have you ever heard of a doppelganger? Or a walk-in? Or Sybil?

From April 26th 2009

I would like to make a prediction. Note the date: November 22 2008.

We are in one of the worst financial crises  we have ever been in.
We are manning two war fronts with a possible third in the near future.
The country is leaning more to the socialist side than to the capitalistic side even considering the New Deal.
We are changing the guard in Washington in the next three months in the middle of this crisis. 

Now the prediction:

In seven to ten years we are going to see the biggest economic boom this country and the world has ever seen.

Here's why:

We are going into extreme debt. The money that we are using to go into debt, such as the $700 Billion bailout money, the $60 Billion, the $35 Billion, etc, for the troops and whatever else the new administration comes up with...is created, made up from the minds of the Federal Reserve. There is no more gold or silver backing it up. (Thank you Nixon) This money will now be circulating in the new economy. As "We the People" pay this debt back, with interest, the money becomes real. Add this phenomenon to the probability that new technology and subsequently new business will surely arise within this next seven to ten year cycle that will also stimulate the economy and you got yourself the next boom.

So, as you are trying to figure out who you are going to drop off your Christmas list while walking to Wal-Mart. think of Ghosts of Christmas Futures and let your heart be light.

The big box store Home Depot reported that it lost 24% in the 2nd quarter. (although they were expecting to lose more, so it's all right) With the housing market down and the public afraid of the economy's future, folks aren't building extra rooms, back yard decks, let alone whole houses right now. One of the ways the Depot wants to remedy this problem is to put more sales people out on the floor.

News flash: Putting more teenagers on the floor that don't know where anything is or what a 3/4 to 1/2 inch pipe coupler is, won't help Home Depot lure in the customers.

I live about four miles from a Home Depot, yet I drive an extra ten miles to go Lowe's. Why??? Maybe its because I'm not treated like a thief every time I leave the store. Years ago Home Depot adopted a 'Guilty until proven innocent by a minimum wage earner's pink highlighter drawing a stripe on your receipt' policy. Just like most retail outlets, they have the sensors that read the magnetic material embedded in the item. The magnetic field is nullified at the check out register, yet they prefer to accuse every person that purchases something (and even a few that don't) of stealing by checking each item in the cart against the customer's receipt. Even though this policy has been challenged and proven to be against the law in itself, most people simply go along with it like bad cell service or Microsoft products.

Once you do make it past the law and they are satisfied that that's not a wrench in your pants, its time to brave the Day Laborer infested parking lot. For many years Home Depots have not only allowed day laborers to hangout in the parking lot, they even built them a Day Laborer Center. This place has all the amenities. Restrooms, benches, interpreters and agents. Yes, I said agents! It seems the laborers thought the they were getting ripped off. Even if you did need two guys to help you move that 2000 pound concrete fountain, the agent is going to make darn sure they each get a decant wage as well as breaks and only work eight hours. What's the point in hiring day laborers if you can't pay them next to nothing and make them work long hours. What's next? Will I have to start contributing to their 401Ks? Home depot is ruining it for everyone. Thanks, thanks a lot!

Has Russia come full circle? Are they starting over to become the land baron they once were? The last time Russia moved in on Georgia was Pre-Soviet Union 1921. In 2008 they basically wanted a regime change because they don't think the Georgian President is doing a good job. (it's the land) What if the United States attacked every little country where we didn't...Oh wait a minute.

It does take rather large ones for the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. to sit three chairs down from the Russian Ambassador and berate him over what most of the world believes the United States is guilty of. Of course I realize that our foreign policy does allow for an attack on Iraq and would not allow for an attack on Georgia, but does it mean we are now supposed to come to Georgia's aid against a tyrannical force?

Many have called Iraq and the probability of Iran a quagmire, a Vietnam. I see it more as a horrible president opening yet another Pandora's box of post war aid. Now that our President has condemned Russia's actions we have to back it up or we are no better than that third grade bully who is bigger than everyone else because he were held back a year or two. Sooner or later everyone else will grow up and come back to kick our ass...because they didn't think our President was doing a good job.

I want to start a business. What do I need first? My new business will thrive if I provide something everyone wants and needs. This product should be a renewable. The public should have a need to replenish their supply on a regular basis as with soap or paper towels. If I can also provide a service to the community but not limit my business to a ‘service only’ company, then I will really have “it”. Next I can add nation wide, no, world wide distribution and my company is on its way.

Now my new company is open and everyone loves my product. I am opening new outlets monthly. I have covered cost and am making about 10% profit on an ongoing basis. I am able to hire more and more people and even put some of the money into research and development to refine my product and stay ahead of the competition.

I am very well established now and I decide to go public. A few years later and I am even paying dividends to my shareholders. The stock keeps on going up.

It seems like the perfect business plan, but I discover the one flaw of my plan. I don’t control the wholesale side and although the price I pay for my product is relatively steady I am noticing that the price is going down. My product is easy to get. Everyone is selling it and the public doesn't seem to need it as much right now. In order to stay competitive I can’t raise my profit margin above 10% to offset the lull, so I’m not making as much money overall. This year the dividends to the stockholders disappeared altogether and the stock price has hit an all time low. Without as much operating capitol I had to lay off some really good people, especially in the R&D department. I felt it was more important to keep the day to day operation going and not have to go to the bank or the government for a bail out.

Its years later and things have turned around. Between the average rate of inflation and the wholesale price creeping back up I’m doing well again. The general public is beginning to use my product more and more. There is healthy business in complementary products that enhance my sales. I still sell my product at a 10% profit, but with the wholesale price higher and simply selling more I now have more money. The shareholders are happy, the R&D department is buzzing again. I was able to hire more employees and even give out some raises.

Because I have had a couple of record years, Congress has decided to investigate my business practices. I am supposedly making too much money. What is too much money? Congress wants to increase the tax I already pay. Where’s the incentive to do well if you get punished when you do. They’re changing the rules after the game has started. In what other industry does this ever happen?

In case you haven’t figured it out, it’s an oil company. Re-read the piece as if it’s a sandwich shop, a cleaners, or even Wal-Mart and then reassess your opinion of a Windfall Profit Tax.

Hillary and Barack constantly go after each other about each other's experience and McCain admits that economics is not his best game. With two short term Democratic Senators and one long in the tooth Republican how will we Americans know that we're getting what we pay for...I mean vote for?

Why not have them take a test. An “SAT for presidents” kind of test. Shouldn't our Presidential candidates be up to the same snuff we place on lesser jobs and activities? We have a test for teachers, pilots, drivers, massage therapist and court reporters to name a few. All important jobs, yes, but for the top job there’s no top test. You can’t even buy air to breathe underwater without a card to prove you passed your SCUBA test. If you fail or lie about that you might die, but at least you won’t drown the rest of the country along
with you.

Think of all the presidents the United States would have been spared if we had this simple quiz….I’ll wait…When I hire a plumber I want him to know more than I do about replacing the elbow section of a kitchen sink and I want my President to know where Bhutan is, that there are two Dakotas and why we fought WWI. Is it so bad that along with diplomacy, compassion and charisma to also want general intelligence about the world we live in? I know the argument is that every president surrounds himself with great advisors, but if Stephen Hawking lectures a Rhino, the Rhino will not suddenly turn in a paper on Quasars and Black Holes.

Of course a simple written test might not satisfy America’s blood lust for the sensational. A phone call to Alex Trebek might do the trick. Aside from the quiz itself it would be very telling if your favorite candidate can’t follow the instructions enough to answer in the form of a question. And if they can’t handle the Jeopardy buzzer how will their finger perform “on the button?”

John McCain may have a harder time passing a driver’s test at his age than becoming President. Barack refused to take the 2008 Political Courage Test so a Presidential SAT is probably out of the question and if Hillary and Bill were to renew their vows, the blood test might be a little scary. All candidates have a built in aversion to answering questions, so until we invoke a Presidential SAT we will have to base our votes on what the candidates say and do on the campaign trail, never knowing if it’s because they hear it in an earpiece or see it on a teleprompter…or more terrifying, if what they say is really coming from their own brains.

The recent discussions about the current financial crisis and subsequent policies by the FED and treasury secretary Paulson have not addressed one of the main reasons for its debacle. GAAP - General Accepted Accounting Practices. We all know that for every debit there is a credit and vice-versa. What many people do not realize is that if I lend you money, that money shows up on my books as a future asset complete with interest, thus showing an immediate profit (at least on paper). I can now take that asset and borrow up to 90% against it. Now I can lend that money out to someone else and do it again and again and again. My ledger is legal and true, yet shows I have millions, even billions in assets that only virtually exist.

There are two things wrong with this approach. First there is the obvious problem of creating a false economy, which, by the way, it is.  What is our economy really based on? The idea of money is desire. The ink is hope and the paper is trust.  I know it says; “in God we trust”, but as long as we think a one dollar bill will still buy a set of spatulas at the 99 Cent Store, it is the paper we trust in. We’ll turn to God when it becomes the $2.99 Store and we still only have the one dollar…but I digress.

Then there is the fact that the individual did not authorize the lender to use his or her contract to repay a debt as collateral for a loan to benefit the lender. Of course none of this is disclosed, if it was, the lender would have to share the interest they get from the unauthorized loan with the original debtor for it is his promise to pay that makes the second loan possible. Add that to the law that disallows the public to deduct consumer interest, which led to more home equity loans in order to get around the interest loop hole and you can see the middle class playing the staring role in “The Incredible Shrinking Man”.

This practice is universal among all lending institutions including credit card companies such as Citibank, Discover, etc. Everything thing that is happening with the economy right now can be attributed to this practice, but as usual, every side-stepping law and regulation is being proposed without seeing the root of the evil.

The FED can raise and lower interest rates, Congress can throw billions at the problem and pile on rule upon rule, but until this fiat money is carefully looked at, these remedies are merely band aids on an amputated leg. We know the leg isn’t there, but we still keep reaching for it.

Note: The diagram was drawn by my friend Phil Stearns as I explain my theory to him for the first time.

All of the candidates are offering up some form of government provided health care. Everything from self-directed Health Savings plans to full-blown coverage that will be brought to you by the people that brought you the Postal Service, the IRS and Iraq War. We keep creeping sheepishly up to the counter, and just like little Oliver Twist, begging;“Please sir, may I have some more?” Like Oliver, we’re asking for more gruel when what the public really needs is Food Glorious Food! Yes, food that is readily available in a free market society with competition all vying for that all important shelf space to catch the consumer’s eye. Prices become lower,service becomes better or the server is no more. The difference is, that when all you know is gruel, you’ll keep asking for more and just like so many government programs, will receive it in triplicate…provided you fill out the proper forms. Anybody remember 1980’s government cheese? Its motto was; “it slices and melts well.”

In buying into any federally based health system we will be creating a nation even more dependent on the government, asking “mother may I?”every time we need anything. Doesn’t anyone remember that feeling you had when you didn’t have to ask your parents for money anymore because you had your own,or when you suddenly realized you were an adult and made the choice to stay up late, because you could? Ah, but these things require self discipline, personal pride and responsibility.

 So, when Oliver’s Mr. Bumble says no to your liver transplant, beats you, and throws you in a dark cellar, also known as a waiting list, don’t go trying to get your money back on your “Sicko” DVD. You can always glue it to a stick and use it as a paddle on your trip to Cuba.

There are no national laws about the running the primaries.Each State pretty much does what they want.

Some have caucuses, some have primaries and some have both.

Some have primaries where either party can vote for either party. 

Some have primaries where only registered Democrats can vote for their candidate, respectively. 

In California you had to be a registered Republican to vote for a Republican candidate, but registered Democrats, Independents and Undeclared could vote for Democrats or Independents, but not Republicans, as long as you ask for the correct ballot. 

Some require 500 signatures to be on the ballot and others require 10,000. 

I think you get it. It’s a disorganized mess waiting to, no, already happening.

The RNC or the DNC doesn't’t interfere with this free-for-all and typically plays by the rules.

So Florida is kicked in the pan handle once again. Floridians and Michigonians…Michiganites…people from Michigan did the same as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and yet are the only two of the five states that moved up their primaries being asked by the people who left them out of the primaries to pay for a do-over out tax payer’s money. This means people that already have chosen their candidate, or those who don’t care about the primaries at all will have to contribute to staging a new primary. Here is a perfect example of the type of socialism the Democratic Party loves. At least they’re true to their platform.

Yes, it’s true that Florida and Michigan moved their dates in order to be more involved in the earlier contests. Since the DNC got mad and banned the party from going to the party; even though Hillary and Barack did anyway, Florida and Michigan accepted their fate and didn't’t fight back, thus allowing the DNC to shoot itself in its ‘future’ foot as I predicted. Now that the Democratic candidates need those delegates, the shoe is on the foot that isn't’t shot…yet.

Just like College sports need a unified play-off system, the primaries need a national plan. This could be as simple as the two parties setting a primary schedule and a few global rules. Yes, you can still go to Aunt Vivian’s and caucus away, (maybe not in her living room anymore after Texas'’ caucus this year) but maybe on a day that lines up with the rest of the states in instead this “every state for himself” mentality.

I hate to continue with another sports analogy…but:

When the Dallas Cowboys go to New York and play the Giants,the rules are the same. You can’t ‘face mask’ in Texas and use hammers in NewYork. Plus, the schedule is planned out a year in advance. The DNC must betaking their cue from baseball where the two leagues have different rules about pitchers…to bat or not to bat? I guess Florida and Michigan fall into the American League and the Dems chose Howard Dean is the designated hitter. I hope he’s wearing a helmet.

For your convenience I have included the DNC rules on primary Schedules:

Rule 11.A. of the Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention states the following:

11. TIMING OF THE DELEGATE SELECTION PROCESS

A. No meetings, caucuses, conventions or primaries which constitute the first determining stage in the presidential nomination process (the date of the primary in primary states, and the date of the first tier caucus in caucus states) may be held prior to the first Tuesday in February or after the second Tuesday in June in the calendar year of the national convention. Provided, however, that the Iowa precinct caucuses may be held no earlier than 22 days before the first Tuesday in February; that the Nevada first-tier caucuses may be held no earlier than 17 days before the first Tuesday in February; that the New Hampshire primary may be held no earlier than 14 days before the first Tuesday in February; and that the South Carolina primary may be held no earlier than 7 days before the first Tuesday in February. In no instance may a state which scheduled delegate selection procedures on or between the first Tuesday in February and the second Tuesday in June 1984 move out of compliance with the provisions of this rule.

Here are the revised rules as of August 19^th 2008 from the DNC official website:

The new schedule is as follows

• Iowa holds the first-in-the-nation caucus on January 14.
  
• New Hampshire holds the first-in-the-nation primary on January 22.
  
• Nevada conducts a caucus between Iowa and New Hampshire on Saturday, January 19.
  
• South Carolina holds a primary 1 week after the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, January 2
  
• The regular window will open for all other states on the first Tuesday in February -- February 5, 2008.

Here is what really happened:

• Iowa – January 3^rd 2008
  
• New Hampshire – January 8^th 2008
  
• South Carolina – January 26^th 2008
  

During the past two decades of the 1900’s, (that makes it sound like a long time ago) the Republicans have had the edge on Democrats for one reason only. A unified platform. They were Conservatives all the way. There was no “Conservative Light”. They believed in less government, low taxes for companies and individuals, the right to life and fiscal responsibility. It made the republicans appear focused, organized and dare I say; “hip to be square”.

All of that has changed. There’s a new Republican Party in town and it’s as split as a bad Jr. High dance with the girls and boys staring at each other from opposite sides of the gym. The girls want to dance, but the boys won’t walk across to get them. So, the one who gets to dance is the one standing in the middle. He might not be the best dancer. He’s a little older than most of the other kids, but that’s because he was held back for eight years. They might not all like his style of music and the real dancers don’t like him at all, but he’s popular with the shy and non-committal kids.

Now the Democrats seem to at least have a unified platform and it’s even causing people to rally around them that actually disagree with them.

Form over substance anyone?